Well, that was a change of pace. Whether getting directions to the edge of a Zambian open pit mine from a couple of artisanal miners, arriving in northern Mozambique with no luggage, or watching our driver pull into a Tanzanian village to buy motor oil in an old water bottle so the engine wouldn’t seize up completely, the past three weeks were rarely dull. But they were also incredibly informative: non-stop meetings with everyone from geologists to government officials, security consultants, and mining executives.
This is just a quick follow-up to my last article, after which I’ll focus on writing three reports: one each on critical minerals and related topics in Zambia, Mozambique, and Tanzania. They’ll be available for purchase on Searchlight’s website and their release will be announced via LinkedIn. In the meantime, I’ll be sifting through all the materials I gathered over the past few weeks – but I already know each report will emphasize different topics. For instance, the Zambia report will focus on investment opportunities and geopolitical considerations while the Mozambique report will mainly discuss the business environment and details about the evolving insurgency in the north.
Zambia
If I had to sum up Zambia in one word, it would be “opportunity.” Opportunities to deploy capital to dozens of mining and refining projects just waiting to get off the ground. Opportunities for mineral exploration in a country which has only really explored one of its provinces. An opportunity to solidify relations with a key regional partner desperately trying to extend a hand toward the West.
Most western countries seem to perceive Zambia as a country dominated by a unified, coordinated Chinese influence campaign. I found the reality to be far more nuanced – and Zambian perceptions of Chinese investment to be similarly complicated. To Western investors, businesses, and policymakers concerned that they stand little chance against Chinese investment, I’ll just say this: read Searchlight’s forthcoming report.
Mozambique
My last article described Mozambique as “a difficult country in which to do business.” That was, it turns out, quite an understatement. I’ll save the details for the report, but let’s just say the contrast with Zambia was jarring. Yes, the scenery is beautiful – but as multiple people warned me, “don’t let the scenery fool you.”
I spent several days in Pemba, Cabo Delgado province, in part to get ground truth information about the ongoing insurgency. Contrary to popular perception, Pemba is probably a safer town than any U.S. city these days. But go 100km north and the situation changes dramatically. Local experts provided quite a detailed laydown of which roads and districts are under threat, insurgent tactics, the level of Islamic State influence, and the effectiveness of each force (Mozambican, Rwandan, SAMIM, etc.) present in the area.
Tanzania
I hadn’t quite appreciated the extent to which Tanzania’s previous administration – under President John Magufuli – wrecked the country’s investment climate. The anger Tanzanian businesspeople feel toward that administration was palpable in every conversation. While President Samia Suluhu Hassan is doing everything in her power to bring foreign investment back, it’s understandable that most businesses are waiting to see the results of the 2025 election.
The country’s mining sector remains relatively nascent, but I had the opportunity to visit one company’s graphite mining concession and speak with the leadership of two other junior graphite mining companies. It quickly became clear that some teams are more serious than others, but also that many will be forced to accept funding from Chinese state-owned enterprises if Western investment does not materialize soon.
That’s it for now! The Zambia report will be released here on 14 Feb 2024.
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